As global commerce undergoes a profound technological transformation, the payments landscape is poised for further disruption in consumer payments.
Juniper Research’s Consumer Payments Tech Horizon 2025 offers a comprehensive strategic lens through which to view the technologies shaping the future of digital payments.
From emerging players like biometric terminals and voice-activated payments to maturing giants such as BNPL and mobile wallets, the report provides a roadmap for where innovation is delivering results — and where it is stalling.
At the heart of the report is the concept of the Tech Horizon, which evaluates technologies based on their stage of development and market performance.
Those above the line are deemed to be exceeding expectations, offering strong returns on investment and reshaping consumer behaviour.
Those below the line, by contrast, are underperforming, either due to lagging adoption, limited utility, or intensifying competition.
Major Movers to Watch
Three technologies emerge as the most dynamic in the coming year: bank-backed wallets, Click to Pay, and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL).
Each is at a different point in its lifecycle, yet all are forecast to shift significantly in market position.
Bank-backed wallets, though historically slow to gain traction, are expected to rise due to changes in the competitive environment — most notably Apple’s decision to open NFC access to third parties.
This single move could allow banks to offer contactless payments through their own apps, eliminating a critical barrier to wallet adoption.
Initiatives like Europe’s Wero and the US-based Paze project exemplify this renewed push for banking institutions to reassert themselves in the digital wallet space.
Conversely, BNPL is showing signs of saturation.
Despite strong revenue growth, increasing regulatory pressure and market consolidation are dampening prospects.
New entrants face high barriers to entry, and smaller players risk being absorbed by dominant incumbents such as Klarna or Affirm.
Without careful engagement with regulators and improved consumer protections, the sector may lose ground even as it matures.
Meanwhile, Click to Pay, a standardised digital checkout system developed by EMVCo, is on the cusp of widespread implementation.
Enabled by card network mandates, the solution is already integrated into 70 million user profiles globally.
By streamlining guest checkout and enhancing security, Click to Pay is well positioned to rival digital wallet “buy buttons” such as Apple Pay and Google Pay — particularly in markets where direct card acceptance remains lucrative for issuers.
Strong Performers: From A2A to Stored Value
Several technologies are firmly above the line, reflecting established success and continued growth trajectories.
Account-to-account (A2A) payments, powered by instant rails like UPI and PIX, are gaining traction, particularly in merchant payments where lower costs and faster settlement appeal to businesses.
In the UK, new fraud protections around authorised push payments are helping to bolster consumer confidence in A2A use cases.
Stored value wallets, particularly in Asia, continue to dominate thanks to their integration with lifestyle apps, loyalty schemes, and P2P functionality.
Innovations such as PayPal’s Fastlane checkout reflect the trend toward frictionless commerce.
Similarly, debit and credit cards, far from obsolete, are being revitalised through tokenisation, biometric authentication, and real-time issuance via APIs.
Below the Line: Caution Ahead
Despite widespread discussion, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and QR code payments have yet to deliver on their early promise in Western markets.
QR codes face stiff competition from faster and more seamless NFC technology, while retail CBDCs continue to struggle with consumer uptake and infrastructure challenges.
Likewise, carrier billing, once seen as a bridge to financial inclusion, is now outpaced by more flexible and feature-rich alternatives like mobile money and prepaid cards.
Even so, certain underperforming technologies could rebound as policy, infrastructure, and consumer habits evolve.
Tech Horizon reveals a payments industry in flux — rich with opportunity but fraught with strategic choices.
For issuers, fintechs, and merchants alike, success will hinge on recognising where technology is truly delivering value, where adoption is set to accelerate, and where yesterday’s innovations are quietly losing relevance.
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